Sai Ravela, PhD, a principal research scientist in MIT’s Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences (EAPS), is leading this 2024 India Grant project. The project aims to develop climate projections for climate-resilient agriculture in India. Ravela and the other members of the project team aim to develop a climate-aware decision support system that agricultural policy planners can use for decision-making in water management, irrigation planning, supply chain stabilization, and crop variety selection in India.  

For context, India’s economic productivity relies heavily on agriculture, which is threatened by climate change and the water crisis. To meet the growing demands, the country has implemented several agricultural policies with short-term benefits at the cost of long-term environmental sustainability. Rising temperatures, erratic monsoons, and increasing droughts are now putting the food and water security of the country, as well as farmer livelihoods, at risk.

As a result, the researchers hope to determine whether incorporating long-range climate projections could improve sustainable agricultural decision-making in the country. The project has two major components. First, the team plans to develop a computational method that transforms coarse resolution climate simulations into detailed predictions for local decision-making. Second, the team will build an AI-based optimization framework that handles multiple competing objectives, such as increasing resilience against climate-related risks, minimizing water and energy usage, and maximizing crop yield, to enable sound practices and policies.

This project builds on Ravela’s body of work, which centers around risk assessment of extremes in a changing climate. Specifically, he has worked to quantify cyclone-induced risk and is developing soil observatory and sustainable livelihood solutions in Southwest Bangladesh. The other project team members, Professor Subimal Ghosh and Anamitra Saha, PhD, have also collaborated on related projects. During Saha’s graduate studies, he worked with Ghosh to examine the impact of anthropogenic emissions on the Indian monsoon and investigate the relative contributions of climate and land use changes to the hydrology of major river basins in India. As a postdoctoral associate, he advanced downscaling methods under Ravela’s supervision.